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Article » 2009-10-10

Pot Odds and Implicit Odds



Pot odds are a fairly simple concept. The basic idea is we want to know how much money the pot is offering us compared to the bet we have to make to win the pot. We then compare this with the odds we have of completing our hand. If the pot is offering at least the same odds as the deck is of completing our hand, then it is said to be a good bet. If however the pot is offering less than the chances we have to complete the hand then it is a bad bet. Here is an example:

You hold KT and the flop shows AQ47. You are playing in a typical $2/$4 hold’em game and with one card to come there is $32 in the pot. A player to your right has bet into you. It is now time to decide whether or not it is a good move to call their four dollars. The odds of you completing your inside straight draw (by hitting the Jack on the river) are about 11:1. The pot unfortunately is offering you only 8:1 on your money. So in a case like this you would probably not want to make the call because you simply aren’t getting paid enough to justify the call

Look at it this way: If you were to play the above situation over and over again for the next one hundred years, you would always run out of money. No matter how often you refilled your bankroll, because this bet is always a losing proposition, you will always run out of money. See, the numbers simply don’t lie. Over the long haul you are going to complete this hand one out of every eleven times, but in each situation you will be making less than eight times your investment. This is why the concept of pot odds is so powerful. It is literally a road map for whether or not you can make money in a given situation.

Implicit odds

Implicit odds are not as concrete as pot odds in that they involve some guesswork on your part. With implicit odds what we are trying to do is calculate if there will be more money in the pot before the showdown. For example, even if the pot odds don’t justify a call after the flop, is it possible that by the turn or the river there will be enough money in the pot to justify your call? If, with reasonable accuracy, you can surmise that yes, there will be the proper amount of bets in the pot, then usually it is okay to go ahead and continue in the pot.

You need to be careful with implicit odds however. Many players would read too far into them and in the interest of always wanting to continue in the pot, finding some way to justify that action. They reason that several people will still be in the hand or something silly. But remember, with implicit odds we also need to calculate the possibility of raises and re-raises, things that could invariably make your call much less profitable.  The bottom line is to remember that both pot odds and implicit odds are good tools to use while playing poker but they are not something that should be relied on one hundred percent. Use them as a guideline only and rely on your superior playing ability to guide you the rest of the way.